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Players to Fade in 2018


Despite their undeniable quality, it’s impossible for the players in their mid-thirties to perform at their best week after week. Join us while we go through some of the top players to fade in the 2018 season

Professional tennis is older than it’s ever been. Most of the players compete until their mid-thirties with 48.57% of the players who won titles on the ATP World Tour in 2017 with 30 years or more. Physical conditioning has massively improved over the last couple of years, helping players to maintain their body in great condition. On the other hand, the level of care that every player invests in their bodies is tremendous with a physiotherapist that keeps them sharp; healthy diets and dietary supplements. Despite the incredible improvements in training, nutrition and recovery in recent years, the muscles tend to recover more slowly with increasing age. For that reason, players need to make a much more careful calendar management as they get older. With this in mind, it’s not surprising to see so many top players losing in early rounds on lower level events since their main goal is to reach the Grand Slam events in the best physical condition.

Here’s a list of players who might present some valuable opportunities to bet against them throughout the 2018 season.

Tomas Berdych
For the first time since 2009, Tomas Berdych ended the season outside the top 10. Berdych has been a consistently excellent player for a long time but his numbers in recent months have been far from brilliant. Besides winning only 28.00% of his last 50 matches against top 10 opponents, the Czech holds a terrible 20.00% winning record when priced as underdog in the last two years. Adding to this, Tomas proved to be a terrible investment in 2017 when priced between -200 and -101 with a -23.60% ROI.

With this in mind, Berdych is definitely a player to fade in 2018, especially when priced as slight favorite and underdog.

David Ferrer
The year of 2017 was without any doubt one of the worst on David Ferrer’s career with the Spaniard ending the season outside the top 35 for the first time since 2004. Ferrer built his career around his incredible physical condition and at the age of 35 is impossible for David to compete at his best week after week. On the other hand, the lack of success is also affecting Ferrer’s confidence with the former world no.3 ending the season with an average of 0.35 double faults per service game while his career average is only 0.21.

Despite his disappointing 24 – 21 record in 2017, Ferrer still managed to end the year as a profitable investment when priced as underdog. Nevertheless, David only won 59.26% of the matches when priced as favorite with a terrible -18.00% ROI. That said, our recommendation is for you to fade Ferrer when priced as favorite in 2018 since it will be very hard for the Spaniard to perform at his best on a consistent basis.

Feliciano Lopez
Known as one of the best grass-court players in the game, Feliciano Lopez ended 2017 with an incredible 9 – 2 record on grass. Adding to this, Lopez won his first ATP World Tour 500 title at the Queens Club. Despite Feliciano’s brilliant results on grass, the 36-year-old ended the season with a terrible 17 – 24 record outside grass. Moreover, Feliciano only won 6.25% of the matches when priced as underdog in 2017.

Even though Lopez is always a dangerous opponent on the grass-court season, our recommendation is for you to add him to your fading list to 2018 on all the other surfaces.

Joao Mourato

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